The time has come for Indian leaders to decide whether to shed the country’s longstanding nonalignment policy and make common cause with the United States.

[By Bhanu Dhamija]

[A version of this article was published under the heading ‘Bitter Tariff Pill: Why Backing Trump Might be India’s Only Real Option for Now’ on The Quint website on 11 August 2025.]

India is livid with President Trump. He says he is India’s friend, but has just declared our fast-growing economy “dead” and imposed a crippling 50% tariff on our exports to the United States. This is among the highest U.S. levies on any country. India’s response thus far is a confused mix of defiance, posturing, and talking to America’s rivals. There are reports that it might pause some purchases of U.S. arms. But the time has come for Indian leaders to decide whether to shed the country’s longstanding nonalignment policy and make common cause with the United States.

Trump has given two reasons for his unfriendly acts: India doesn’t buy enough U.S. products, and it buys Russian oil in huge quantities despite American sanctions. Imposing his first 25% tariff, Trump said, “India has not been a good trading partner because they do a lot of business with us, but we don’t do business with them.” It was his second salvo of another 25% tariff “for buying Russian oil,” however, that warrants even more attention.

Our leaders should know that while Trump’s treatment is harsh, it’s nothing compared to what might be coming soon from the U.S. Congress. American lawmakers in the Senate are almost ready to pass a bill that would impose a 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil. That bill already has 80 co-sponsors in a house of 100 members and is expected to pass in September.

India’s support of Russia is thus the main reason for Trump’s ill-treatment of the country. He wants India on his side as he attempts to negotiate an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Senate bill’s wide support indicates that the American people’s patience with his efforts to broker peace is running thin. His chances of persuading Russia to end the conflict would improve if India and China–who together buy enough oil to pay for the entire $100 billion Russia spends on the war–reduce or stop their purchases.

By putting so much pressure on India, a “friend,” Trump is signaling to China and Russia that he is dead serious about using his trade policy to bring the war to an end. He is currently negotiating with both those nations and the discussions seem to be in their last stages.

India’s best hope is that Trump succeeds in ending the war and the crisis blows over. It is possible that the two sides are choreographing events to help Trump convey the message to Russia and China, which is why India’s punitive 25% tariff for buying Russian oil has been delayed for 21 days.

India’s problem is that its nonalignment policy has become shorthand for opportunism.

But if the crisis persists, India stands at a crossroads and must pick a side. It has been reluctant to do so as it considers the Ukrainian war a European conflict. But the U.S. policy, with or without Trump, is going to make sitting on the fence very difficult. India would face far reaching consequences that could range from economic sanctions to the U.S. turning more toward Pakistan. Trump has already met with the chief of the Pakistani military and has committed U.S. resources to developing that country’s oil reserves.

India’s 75-year-old nonalignment policy thus faces one of its toughest tests so far. If the Modi government stands strictly by the original definition of the policy outlined by Prime Minister Nehru in 1949, it would side with peace and thus Trump.  Nehru said India’s foreign objectives included “the pursuit of peace, not through alignment with any major power or group of powers, but through an independent approach to each controversial or disputed issue.” Ending the Russia-Ukraine war is definitely a “pursuit of peace” and India would be in the right to take “an independent approach” by ending its support of Russia. India’s RBI has already stated that reducing Russian oil purchases would have little impact on inflation.

The nonalignment policy’s five basic principles (Panchsheel) don’t support India siding with Russia. These principles are: respect for territorial integrity, non-aggression, non-interference, equality, and peaceful coexistence. Russia violated all of these when it attacked Ukraine.

India’s problem is that its nonalignment policy has become shorthand for opportunism. Playing one superpower against the other may have given the nation some tactical advantage, but it has left us with no solid friends. Where was Russia when China openly sided with Pakistan in our most recent military conflict?

But Prime Minister Modi continues to pursue this policy of opportunism. The only change is that his External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar prefers to call it “multi-alignment.”

This policy’s failure was evident as early as 1962, when China attacked India. Nehru approached the United States, not Russia, seeking military assistance. President Kennedy provided significant military and logistical aid. India’s Ambassador to the United States, B.K. Nehru, wrote, “We continued to talk in terms of non-alignment but we had become in fact the allies of the U.S. in their confrontation at least against China.”

The truth is that India needs the United States. There is no denying that China has encircled our nation, and that Russia will never side with India against China. India should ally with the United States also because of our shared values: democracy, individual rights, human rights, and free markets.