[By Bhanu Dhamija]

As Donald Trump’s presidential bid gains momentum, Americans are increasingly concerned that if reelected he would become a dictator. Trump himself is fanning these fears because they reinforce his “us against them” campaign strategy.[1] President Biden also continues to remind voters at every opportunity that Trump is unsafe for democracy; a week before the Iowa caucus, he said Trump was only after “revenge, power and dictatorship.”[2]

American voters are confused and worried. In a recent poll, taken after Trump’s snide remark that he wouldn’t act as a dictator “except for day one,” 56% of voters thought that he would.[3] The same poll however found that 59% of voters believe Democrats are trying to scare voters by saying Trump wants to be a dictator.

For a nation that has elected 12 military generals as President with nary a thought about dictatorship, all this talk seems out of place. From George Washington to Ulysses Grant to Dwight Eisenhower, many of these generals were hugely popular, but none worried the American people. Grant won the 1872 election with more than 81% of the electoral votes; Eisenhower was reelected with a whopping 86%. Andrew Jackson, whom Trump claims to emulate, came to office with bluster about eliminating the Electoral College, but failed to do so.

In the 235 years under the Constitution, no President has been able to act autocratically because America’s savvy Founders didn’t leave any mechanism for them to do so.

In the 235 years under the Constitution, no President has been able to act autocratically because America’s savvy Founders didn’t leave any mechanism for them to do so. Forget about abolishing the Constitution; a President can’t even amend it. Trump would have to command both houses of Congress and three-fourths of the states to mess with the Constitution. Even if the Republicans come to control Congress, there is no process by which Trump could dissolve or control the state legislatures and Governors. Also thwarting Trump would be America’s unique system of state judiciaries, which, unlike in most countries, is not controlled by any central authority. Then there is the Supreme Court: Trump cannot dissolve or expand it without amending the Constitution, nor can he control the Justices. Even those appointed by Trump have already shown their independence by ruling against him numerous times.

The most ardent Trump opponents don’t actually think he could become a dictator in the traditional sense, but fear that he would be authoritarian in other ways. Liz Cheney warns that Trump could declare a National Emergency; postpone elections; promise pardons for illegal orders, and/or fire executive-branch officials who don’t do his bidding.[4] Robert Kagan, The Washington Post editor, raises another specter: “Would he even obey a directive of the Supreme Court? Or would he instead ask how many armored divisions the Chief Justice has? Will a future Congress stop him? Presidents can accomplish a lot these days without congressional approval, as even Barack Obama showed.”[5]

It is smart to consider these possibilities, but the key question is How far can Trump go with his shenanigans and illegal orders? The experience from his first term suggests not very far. His illegal immigration policies, unauthorized border wall, and attempts to repeal Obamacare were all stopped by the courts, public protests, and Congress. To declare a National Emergency Trump would need to specify its legal basis, which could be challenged in the courts or denied by Congress. He couldn’t postpone elections since the dates are specified in the Constitution. And if he fires executive officials illegally, they would quickly go to the media or the courts.

Presidential overreach in America is not a new phenomenon—Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. wrote a book about them in the 1970s, The Imperial Presidency. All Presidents overreach and their attempts are usually foiled.

As in the past, Trump’s brazen overreaches would fail, turn public opinion against him, and run up against one of the best checks devised by the Founders: congressional elections every second year. If Trump really goes rogue, he would then find that impeachment is a real check and not just the political theater he experienced in his first term. As President Nixon learned, if the evidence is overwhelmingly nonpolitical, members of his own party would turn against him.

What if Trump tries to use the military?

The first line of defense against such a calamity is another constitutional check: the appointment of a Secretary of Defense requires congressional approval. This ensures that the Secretary is publicly vetted and is a person of integrity. Trump’s first Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, resigned over policy disagreements; the second, Patrick Shanahan, withdrew his nomination over reports of domestic violence; and the third, Mark Esper, publicly opposed Trump and was fired. As for the soldiers, the men and women of the U.S. military take an oath to protect and defend the Constitution, not the President. The one General who did accompany Trump to a church event in 2020,General Mark Milley, publicly apologized for his mistake.

American Founders worried more about the country falling into a dictatorship than almost anything else, for they understood the dangers inherent in a single person executive. “The Founders anticipated the threat of Trump,” wrote Jeffrey Rosen, President of the National Constitution Center, and “designed a constitutional system to prevent demagogues from sowing confusion and mob violence.”[6] Trump’s many indictments prove that their system is still working.

So instead of fretting over Donald Trump becoming a pseudo dictator, let’s consider whether he could become a true leader. Would he retain people with diverse opinions, make compromises with his opponents, and maintain the dignity of the office? There is a lot more to worry about regarding Trump than him becoming a dictator.

[1]https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4366724-more-than-half-of-voters-think-trump-will-act-like-a-dictator-if-elected-poll/

[2]https://apnews.com/article/biden-speech-valley-forge-trump-campaign-bda2293cac2b30e49157c2e6fb256d64

[3]https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4366724-more-than-half-of-voters-think-trump-will-act-like-a-dictator-if-elected-poll/

[4]https://www.wsj.com/articles/liz-cheney-checks-and-balances-wont-stop-trump-abuse-of-power-jan-6-second-term-219cc7b7?mod=commentary_article_pos5&mod=article_inline

[5]https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/

[6]https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-founders-anticipated-the-threat-of-trump-becda1b